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KATY's daily model path, its record on XLE, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$62.21
Nov 10, 2026 · +0.44% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$58.27
−5.44% from $61.62
Path range
−5.4% to −0.3%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on XLE
8/12 hits
66.7% · 4 misses
Options
FAIR
IV 26% · 1.11× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Energy Select Sector SPDR, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $61.62 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $58.27 (−5.44%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −5.44% and −0.27% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, XLE has closed at $62.21 on Nov 10, 2026, +0.96% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move runs against the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On XLE, KATY's replay record is 8 hits and 4 misses in 12 tested calls (66.7%), above its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −13.06% and XLE moved −5.32%: a hit on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 26% implied volatility against about 23% realized, 1.11× realized, so options read fairly priced. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest XLE path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public XLE path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $61.62 | $58.27 (−5.44%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · +0.96% so far |
8 hits, 4 misses and 4 neutral in 12 replayed XLE calls (66.7% on direction; 66.7% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 5.3%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −13.06%; the actual move was −5.32% (direction hit, average path error 9.11%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $65.11 | $66.01 | −1.36% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $63.55 | $68.24 | −6.87% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $61.01 | $69.33 | −12.00% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $58.61 | $70.02 | −16.30% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $56.58 | $61.62 | −8.18% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 XLE option (38 days) is priced at 25.9% implied volatility, 1.11× the stock's realized volatility, which reads fair. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for XLE (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $61.62 it ends near $58.27 (−5.44%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of XLE right 8 times and wrong 4 times out of 12 tested calls (66.7%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of XLE and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.