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KATY's daily model path, its record on SPY, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$749.92
Nov 10, 2026 · −0.37% on the day
KATY call
NEUTRAL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$733.31
−0.27% from $735.29
Path range
−0.3% to +0.8%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on SPY
7/17 hits
41.2% · 10 misses
Options
FAIR
IV 15% · 1.10× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for SPDR S&P 500 ETF, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, stays within KATY's ±1.5% no-call zone, so it is a NEUTRAL read rather than a call. Starting from the $735.29 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $733.31 (−0.27%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −0.27% and +0.81% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, SPY has closed at $749.92 on Nov 10, 2026, +1.99% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. The call is scored after session 20.
On SPY, KATY's replay record is 7 hits and 10 misses in 17 tested calls (41.2%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −6.01% and SPY moved −5.56%: a hit on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 15% implied volatility against about 14% realized, 1.10× realized, so options read fairly priced. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest SPY path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public SPY path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | NEUTRAL | $735.29 | $733.31 (−0.27%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · +1.99% so far |
7 hits, 10 misses in 17 replayed SPY calls (41.2% on direction; 17.6% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 4.43%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −6.01%; the actual move was −5.56% (direction hit, average path error 1.58%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $767.53 | $778.10 | −1.36% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $759.92 | $763.25 | −0.44% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $753.17 | $759.97 | −0.89% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $744.01 | $755.72 | −1.55% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $731.78 | $735.29 | −0.48% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 SPY option (38 days) is priced at 15.2% implied volatility, 1.10× the stock's realized volatility, which reads fair. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for SPY (run Nov 6, 2026) is NEUTRAL: from $735.29 it ends near $733.31 (−0.27%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of SPY right 7 times and wrong 10 times out of 17 tested calls (41.2%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of SPY and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.