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KATY's daily model path, its record on TLT, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$80.88
Nov 10, 2026 · −1.32% on the day
KATY call
BUY
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$85.92
+4.88% from $81.92
Path range
+0.1% to +4.9%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on TLT
4/15 hits
26.7% · 11 misses
Options
RICH
IV 12% · 1.29× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points up, which KATY labels BUY. Starting from the $81.92 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $85.92 (+4.88%), around Dec 4, and ranges between +0.10% and +4.88% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, TLT has closed at $80.88 on Nov 10, 2026, −1.27% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move runs against the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On TLT, KATY's replay record is 4 hits and 11 misses in 15 tested calls (26.7%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected +11.63% and TLT moved +5.05%: a hit on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 12% implied volatility against about 10% realized, 1.29× realized, so options read rich. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest TLT path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public TLT path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | BUY | $81.92 | $85.92 (+4.88%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · −1.27% so far |
4 hits, 11 misses in 15 replayed TLT calls (26.7% on direction; 20% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 5.1%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected +11.63%; the actual move was +5.05% (direction hit, average path error 3.49%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $78.05 | $78.05 | 0.00% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $81.15 | $80.05 | +1.37% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $83.82 | $81.34 | +3.05% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $85.88 | $81.84 | +4.94% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $87.05 | $81.92 | +6.26% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 TLT option (38 days) is priced at 12.3% implied volatility, 1.29× the stock's realized volatility, which reads rich. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for TLT (run Nov 6, 2026) is BUY: from $81.92 it ends near $85.92 (+4.88%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of TLT right 4 times and wrong 11 times out of 15 tested calls (26.7%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of TLT and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.