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KATY's daily model path, its record on IWM, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$280.58
Nov 10, 2026 · −0.68% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$266.00
−2.80% from $273.67
Path range
−2.8% to −0.4%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on IWM
12/16 hits
75% · 4 misses
Options
FAIR
IV 19% · 1.09× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for iShares Russell 2000 ETF, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $273.67 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $266.00 (−2.80%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −2.80% and −0.43% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, IWM has closed at $280.58 on Nov 10, 2026, +2.52% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move runs against the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On IWM, KATY's replay record is 12 hits and 4 misses in 16 tested calls (75%), above its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −3.81% and IWM moved −1.89%: a hit on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 19% implied volatility against about 18% realized, 1.09× realized, so options read fairly priced. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest IWM path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public IWM path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $273.67 | $266.00 (−2.80%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · +2.52% so far |
12 hits, 4 misses in 16 replayed IWM calls (75% on direction; 68.8% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 3.7%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −3.81%; the actual move was −1.89% (direction hit, average path error 1.89%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $279.15 | $277.90 | +0.45% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $276.67 | $270.44 | +2.30% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $275.03 | $275.75 | −0.26% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $270.91 | $279.33 | −3.01% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $268.32 | $273.67 | −1.95% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 IWM option (38 days) is priced at 19.1% implied volatility, 1.09× the stock's realized volatility, which reads fair. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for IWM (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $273.67 it ends near $266.00 (−2.80%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of IWM right 12 times and wrong 4 times out of 16 tested calls (75%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of IWM and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.