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KATY's daily model path, its record on TGT, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$161.78
Nov 10, 2026 · −1.80% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$129.75
−18.09% from $158.41
Path range
−18.1% to −1.2%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on TGT
7/15 hits
46.7% · 8 misses
Options
RICH
IV 44% · 1.39× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Target, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $158.41 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $129.75 (−18.09%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −18.09% and −1.18% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, TGT has closed at $161.78 on Nov 10, 2026, +2.13% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move runs against the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On TGT, KATY's replay record is 7 hits and 8 misses in 15 tested calls (46.7%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −18.74% and TGT moved +3.10%: a miss on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 44% implied volatility against about 31% realized, 1.39× realized, so options read rich. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest TGT path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public TGT path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $158.41 | $129.75 (−18.09%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · +2.13% so far |
7 hits, 8 misses in 15 replayed TGT calls (46.7% on direction; 26.7% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 10.3%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −18.74%; the actual move was +3.10% (direction miss, average path error 9.14%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $154.79 | $153.62 | +0.76% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $150.18 | $154.26 | −2.64% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $140.72 | $152.76 | −7.88% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $130.69 | $154.38 | −15.35% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $124.85 | $158.41 | −21.19% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 TGT option (38 days) is priced at 43.7% implied volatility, 1.39× the stock's realized volatility, which reads rich. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for TGT (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $158.41 it ends near $129.75 (−18.09%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of TGT right 7 times and wrong 8 times out of 15 tested calls (46.7%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of TGT and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.