QuantSignals › Forecasts › SHOP
KATY's daily model path, its record on SHOP, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$146.61
Nov 10, 2026 · −3.58% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$139.53
−6.30% from $148.91
Path range
−6.3% to −0.6%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on SHOP
6/15 hits
40% · 9 misses
Options
CHEAP
IV 53% · 0.97× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Shopify, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $148.91 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $139.53 (−6.30%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −6.30% and −0.57% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, SHOP has closed at $146.61 on Nov 10, 2026, −1.54% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move agrees with the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On SHOP, KATY's replay record is 6 hits and 9 misses in 15 tested calls (40%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −22.84% and SHOP moved −12.84%: a hit on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 53% implied volatility against about 55% realized, 0.97× realized, so options read cheap. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest SHOP path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public SHOP path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $148.91 | $139.53 (−6.30%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · −1.54% so far |
6 hits, 9 misses in 15 replayed SHOP calls (40% on direction; 40% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 11.87%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −22.84%; the actual move was −12.84% (direction hit, average path error 11.31%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $166.34 | $179.22 | −7.19% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $155.93 | $169.52 | −8.02% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $145.13 | $168.68 | −13.96% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $137.41 | $157.49 | −12.75% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $131.82 | $148.91 | −11.48% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 SHOP option (38 days) is priced at 53.3% implied volatility, 0.97× the stock's realized volatility, which reads cheap. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for SHOP (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $148.91 it ends near $139.53 (−6.30%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of SHOP right 6 times and wrong 9 times out of 15 tested calls (40%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of SHOP and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Software & cloud
Most viewed
Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.