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KATY's daily model path, its record on MRNA, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$250.83
Nov 10, 2026 · −6.75% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$126.99
−50.04% from $254.19
Path range
−50.0% to −4.8%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on MRNA
2/15 hits
13.3% · 13 misses
Options
CHEAP
IV 84% · 0.65× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Moderna, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $254.19 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $126.99 (−50.04%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −50.04% and −4.77% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, MRNA has closed at $250.83 on Nov 10, 2026, −1.32% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move agrees with the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On MRNA, KATY's replay record is 2 hits and 13 misses in 15 tested calls (13.3%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −54.59% and MRNA moved +12.97%: a miss on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 84% implied volatility against about 130% realized, 0.65× realized, so options read cheap. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest MRNA path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public MRNA path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $254.19 | $126.99 (−50.04%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · −1.32% so far |
2 hits, 13 misses in 15 replayed MRNA calls (13.3% on direction; 13.3% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 35.4%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −54.59%; the actual move was +12.97% (direction miss, average path error 33.78%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $212.99 | $213.74 | −0.35% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $180.09 | $218.01 | −17.39% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $147.51 | $200.10 | −26.28% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $114.60 | $221.72 | −48.31% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $102.18 | $254.19 | −59.80% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 MRNA option (38 days) is priced at 84.2% implied volatility, 0.65× the stock's realized volatility, which reads cheap. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for MRNA (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $254.19 it ends near $126.99 (−50.04%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of MRNA right 2 times and wrong 13 times out of 15 tested calls (13.3%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of MRNA and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.