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KATY's daily model path, its record on MRK, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$148.05
Nov 10, 2026 · −0.48% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$120.92
−17.59% from $146.73
Path range
−17.6% to −1.1%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on MRK
5/15 hits
33.3% · 10 misses
Options
FAIR
IV 30% · 1.00× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Merck, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $146.73 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $120.92 (−17.59%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −17.59% and −1.15% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, MRK has closed at $148.05 on Nov 10, 2026, +0.90% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move runs against the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On MRK, KATY's replay record is 5 hits and 10 misses in 15 tested calls (33.3%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −19.44% and MRK moved +0.78%: a miss on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 30% implied volatility against about 30% realized, 1.00× realized, so options read fairly priced. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest MRK path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public MRK path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $146.73 | $120.92 (−17.59%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · +0.90% so far |
5 hits, 10 misses in 15 replayed MRK calls (33.3% on direction; 13.3% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 11.64%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −19.44%; the actual move was +0.78% (direction miss, average path error 9.95%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $144.06 | $145.45 | −0.96% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $138.71 | $145.95 | −4.96% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $131.95 | $145.27 | −9.17% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $125.38 | $149.52 | −16.14% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $117.30 | $146.73 | −20.06% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 MRK option (38 days) is priced at 29.8% implied volatility, 1.00× the stock's realized volatility, which reads fair. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for MRK (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $146.73 it ends near $120.92 (−17.59%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of MRK right 5 times and wrong 10 times out of 15 tested calls (33.3%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of MRK and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.