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KATY's daily model path, its record on LLY, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$1,432.29
Nov 10, 2026 · +1.44% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$1,060.70
−21.66% from $1,354.00
Path range
−21.7% to −1.7%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on LLY
6/15 hits
40% · 9 misses
Options
FAIR
IV 32% · 1.02× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Eli Lilly, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $1,354.00 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $1,060.70 (−21.66%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −21.66% and −1.73% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, LLY has closed at $1,432.29 on Nov 10, 2026, +5.78% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move runs against the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On LLY, KATY's replay record is 6 hits and 9 misses in 15 tested calls (40%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −14.22% and LLY moved +14.82%: a miss on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 32% implied volatility against about 31% realized, 1.02× realized, so options read fairly priced. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest LLY path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public LLY path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $1,354.00 | $1,060.70 (−21.66%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · +5.78% so far |
6 hits, 9 misses in 15 replayed LLY calls (40% on direction; 26.7% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 9.24%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −14.22%; the actual move was +14.82% (direction miss, average path error 15.95%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $1,150.42 | $1,182.62 | −2.72% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $1,125.27 | $1,257.03 | −10.48% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $1,096.09 | $1,273.46 | −13.93% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $1,064.08 | $1,417.54 | −24.93% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $1,011.60 | $1,354.00 | −25.29% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 LLY option (38 days) is priced at 32.0% implied volatility, 1.02× the stock's realized volatility, which reads fair. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for LLY (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $1,354.00 it ends near $1,060.70 (−21.66%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of LLY right 6 times and wrong 9 times out of 15 tested calls (40%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of LLY and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.