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KATY's daily model path, its record on SMCI, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$27.79
Nov 10, 2026 · −2.83% on the day
KATY call
BUY
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$36.62
+27.35% from $28.76
Path range
+3.1% to +27.4%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on SMCI
9/14 hits
64.3% · 5 misses
Options
CHEAP
IV 78% · 0.97× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Super Micro Computer, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points up, which KATY labels BUY. Starting from the $28.76 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $36.62 (+27.35%), around Dec 4, and ranges between +3.12% and +27.35% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, SMCI has closed at $27.79 on Nov 10, 2026, −3.37% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move runs against the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On SMCI, KATY's replay record is 9 hits and 5 misses in 14 tested calls (64.3%), above its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −12.66% and SMCI moved −31.29%: a hit on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 78% implied volatility against about 80% realized, 0.97× realized, so options read cheap. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest SMCI path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public SMCI path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | BUY | $28.76 | $36.62 (+27.35%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · −3.37% so far |
9 hits, 5 misses and 1 neutral in 14 replayed SMCI calls (64.3% on direction; 64.3% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 11.06%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −12.66%; the actual move was −31.29% (direction hit, average path error 16.08%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $41.45 | $39.98 | +3.68% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $40.32 | $31.63 | +27.47% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $38.13 | $32.94 | +15.76% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $36.77 | $32.95 | +11.59% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $36.55 | $28.76 | +27.09% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 SMCI option (38 days) is priced at 77.5% implied volatility, 0.97× the stock's realized volatility, which reads cheap. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for SMCI (run Nov 6, 2026) is BUY: from $28.76 it ends near $36.62 (+27.35%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of SMCI right 9 times and wrong 5 times out of 14 tested calls (64.3%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of SMCI and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.