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KATY's daily model path, its record on SHEL, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$97.27
Nov 10, 2026 · −1.63% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$89.83
−9.34% from $99.09
Path range
−9.3% to −1.2%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on SHEL
3/15 hits
20% · 12 misses
Options
FAIR
IV 25% · 1.15× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Shell, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $99.09 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $89.83 (−9.34%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −9.34% and −1.17% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, SHEL has closed at $97.27 on Nov 10, 2026, −1.84% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move agrees with the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On SHEL, KATY's replay record is 3 hits and 12 misses in 15 tested calls (20%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −16.22% and SHEL moved −1.09%: a hit on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 25% implied volatility against about 22% realized, 1.15× realized, so options read fairly priced. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest SHEL path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public SHEL path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $99.09 | $89.83 (−9.34%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · −1.84% so far |
3 hits, 12 misses in 15 replayed SHEL calls (20% on direction; 6.7% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 8.21%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −16.22%; the actual move was −1.09% (direction hit, average path error 12.45%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $98.71 | $101.59 | −2.83% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $95.86 | $106.66 | −10.13% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $92.25 | $108.18 | −14.73% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $87.51 | $108.69 | −19.49% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $83.93 | $99.09 | −15.30% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 SHEL option (38 days) is priced at 25.3% implied volatility, 1.15× the stock's realized volatility, which reads fair. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for SHEL (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $99.09 it ends near $89.83 (−9.34%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of SHEL right 3 times and wrong 12 times out of 15 tested calls (20%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of SHEL and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.