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KATY's daily model path, its record on CVNA, and the options read. Prices as of the Nov 10, 2026 close · page updated Nov 10, 2026.
Last close
$73.02
Nov 10, 2026 · −4.25% on the day
KATY call
SELL
run Nov 6, 2026
Path end (20 sessions)
$62.36
−15.24% from $73.57
Path range
−15.2% to −1.5%
lowest and highest point of the path
Replay record on CVNA
7/16 hits
43.8% · 9 misses
Options
CHEAP
IV 54% · 0.88× realized
KATY's latest public daily path for Carvana, from its run on Nov 6, 2026, points down, which KATY labels SELL. Starting from the $73.57 close, the path ends 20 sessions later near $62.36 (−15.24%), around Dec 4, and ranges between −15.24% and −1.46% along the way. That is a model path, not a price target.
Since that run, CVNA has closed at $73.02 on Nov 10, 2026, −0.75% from the start, 2 of 20 sessions in. So far the move agrees with the path. The call is scored after session 20.
On CVNA, KATY's replay record is 7 hits and 9 misses in 16 tested calls (43.8%), below its 50.1% rate across all tickers. Its most recent completed replay call expected −6.26% and CVNA moved +15.44%: a miss on direction.
In options, the at-the-money 2026-12-18 contract trades at 54% implied volatility against about 61% realized, 0.88× realized, so options read cheap. That is a pricing read, not a signal.
Daily closes, with KATY's Nov 6, 2026 path drawn from its start close to its end point; the shaded wedge spans the path's lowest and highest points.
The KATY apps and extension show the newest CVNA path as soon as it runs, with the full step-by-step line on the chart. They are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
Every public CVNA path this page has captured, scored on the close 20 sessions after its start: a BUY is a hit if that close is higher, a SELL if it is lower.
| Run | Call | Start close | Path end | Outcome at 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | SELL | $73.57 | $62.36 (−15.24%) | Open, 2/20 sessions · −0.75% so far |
7 hits, 9 misses in 16 replayed CVNA calls (43.8% on direction; 43.8% finished inside the 1.5% band; average path error 52.99%). Across all tickers KATY's replay hit rate is 50.1% over 1,023 calls (BUY > +1.5%, SELL < -1.5% on the 20-step path). Replays re-run the model on past data it did not see; they are not live trades.
KATY re-forecast the 20 sessions that just finished without seeing them. It expected −6.26%; the actual move was +15.44% (direction miss, average path error 9.37%).
| Step | Session | Model path | Actual close | Path vs actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 12, 2026 | $63.12 | $59.51 | +6.07% |
| 5 | Oct 16, 2026 | $62.65 | $58.83 | +6.49% |
| 10 | Oct 23, 2026 | $61.96 | $57.81 | +7.18% |
| 15 | Oct 30, 2026 | $60.58 | $68.29 | −11.29% |
| 20 | Nov 6, 2026 | $59.74 | $73.57 | −18.80% |
The at-the-money 2026-12-18 CVNA option (38 days) is priced at 53.8% implied volatility, 0.88× the stock's realized volatility, which reads cheap. Cheap or rich is a pricing read, not a signal. See the full options-value screen.
KATY's latest public daily path for CVNA (run Nov 6, 2026) is SELL: from $73.57 it ends near $62.36 (−15.24%) after 20 sessions. It is a model path, not a price target. The newest path is in the KATY apps (free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership).
In replay, KATY called the direction of CVNA right 7 times and wrong 9 times out of 16 tested calls (43.8%). Public calls on this page are scored after 20 sessions and listed above, misses included.
KATY is a time-series foundation model that reads the recent daily bars of CVNA and draws the most likely path for the next 20 sessions. A path that ends more than 1.5% up is a BUY, more than 1.5% down a SELL, and anything in between is NEUTRAL. It is not investment advice.
KATY draws this forecast on your own charts: in TradingView with the Chrome extension, or on your phone. The extension and apps are free to install; live forecasts need KATY Premium or an FST membership.
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Not investment advice. KATY's output is a model path, not a price target and not a recommendation to buy or sell. Model forecasts are often wrong; the hit and miss counts on this page are shown so you can judge that yourself. Trading involves risk of loss. Data from QS Research; prices are daily closes and may lag.